Not much to be said this week, as oil continues it’s slow melt down into the end of 2023.
I’ve had a number of subscribers tell me how deeply they’ve gone into cash towards the end of this quarter. It is a shame that my portfolio, for tax reasons, does not allow such deep adjustments.
And generally speaking, although I am happy for the folks who’ve ‘taken advantage’ of 5+% treasury funds (and our good predictions) to take year end profits in oil stocks and wait for another sunny day, there’s been a historically negative result from making any big moves towards the end of the year if you’re investing in stocks, energy stocks or otherwise.
And in case I needed to hammer home this point, it’s absolutely DEADLY to make any big moves in your portfolio during the last two trading weeks of the year. Besides the natural ennui of traders who’ve ‘closed out books’ and the confusion of ‘loss selling’ for tax purposes, there’s little you can historically do in December that doesn’t present itself again, usually with better timing, after the New Year.
I’ve got no stats to really back this up, only nearly 40 years of trading – and my own personal (terrible) December trading experience. In my 25 years on the floor, I often got into trouble, lost money and wished I was in the Caribbean during those holidays.
We must wait for either a move of frustration from the Saudis, looking to repeat their market flood technique from nearly a decade ago, or for the Fed to start relaxing rates, allowing the dollar to sink a bit and inflation to return a bit as well.
Without either of these major market movers, we’re forced to play the waiting game.
And again, at 5%+ treasury fund yields, that’s not a bad place to be.
LAST CHANCE to sign up for my YEAR END wrap-up and 2024 prediction webinar on December 19th at 4PM.
Webinar is LIMITED TO SUBSCRIBERS – you MUST BE (AT LEAST) A FREE SUBSCRIBER AND APPEAR ON THAT LIST – TO BE ELIGIBLE TO REGISTER FOR THIS WEBINAR
Instructions to register are HERE
That’s all for this week – see you at the recap.
