Hey, I know this blog letter sometimes plays like a come-on. I give you the most important oil and energy stories that are happening every week here, free of charge – but the insights from some of that information I mostly save for my subscribers who access my webinars and receive my “ALERT” messages.
So, here’s this last week’s happenings – and why you need to be a part of that service:
In the last week, I noticed a major shift in the financial positions of speculative oil players. For most of 2017, these spec hedge funds and other big non-commercials have been playing oil from the long side, expecting (as I have) that OPEC cuts and rebalancing oil stockpiles would lead to higher prices.
This week, they not only got out of long positions but WENT SHORT. Actually, they’re not technically short, but their “long ratio” has fallen to the lowest levels in 2017, and lowest since the depths of oil prices in 2016 and 2014.
Now, if you know me, you know that I’m big on analyzing the financial inputs to oil.
Heck, I even wrote a book about it.
And when I see financial inputs move to an extreme, my alarm bells go off – because I know that overdone financial changes in the oil market will often mean a LOT more than what’s going on fundamentally. In this case, a large move of “speculators” to get out of longs and get short can often signal a short-squeeze – and has the previous two times we’ve seen this kind of ‘long ratio’ change.
So, I sent out an email alert to subscribers.
Since then, oil has rallied three dollars.
Now, no self-back-patting here from me – I’ve had a terrible year so far, often being a part of the bullish crowd as oil swooned twice in 2017. And even more, this small short covering rally is destined, in my view, not to become anything like a bullish trend – I pointed out last week how an overhang of ready wells and the light hedging that’s been done for 2018 is likely to keep prices down for now.
Read this to see how Bloomberg is catching up to the hedging story I gave you last week.
My point is, that even with the slow start I’ve had on the oil market this year, I’ve been ahead of the rest of the energy media, finding the one or two important headlines that have been affecting oil and oil stocks – and giving some of that insight to you as blog letter subscribers, but all of it to my paying customers.
I hope you will take the opportunity to use this link and join my other subscribers for the rest of 2017. While energy investing for the last six months has been difficult, I am very optimistic about the next six. My next webinar will be on Thursday, July 6th at 4 PM, avoiding the July 4th holiday.